LGBTQ Is Far from Dead (Darel E. Paul, October 20, 2026, First Things)
An appreciation for the social basis of identity can help us understand the data we see today. Variability in sexual identity is rooted in the social nature of all identities. To “identify” as gay, lesbian, bisexual, queer, transgender, or even heterosexual is to assert membership in a social category and adopt a group label. Even if the qualities or traits defining a category (such as the experience of same-sex sexual desire) are perceived to be rooted in the individual, society interprets those qualities and experiences and gives them meaning. All our labels around sexual identity, desire, and behavior are of very recent vintage. Even “heterosexuality” in our current usage is less than a century old.
Thus we shouldn’t be surprised that as social meanings change, identities, experiences, and behaviors change. The quadrupling of college-age nonbinary and related “genderfluid” identities since 2015 and their plateauing since 2022 fit the pattern of a wave of social contagion. The boom (and possible bust) of non-heterosexual identities is likely rooted in similar social processes. Such an interpretation becomes more plausible with a closer look at the data.
The tremendous growth in non-heterosexual identities since the early 2010s has three signature characteristics. First, non-heterosexuality is strongly female. In 2025, among eighteen- to twenty-four-year-old Americans, nearly 30 percent of women claimed a lesbian or bisexual identity, while only 11 percent of men identified as gay or bisexual. The same pattern exists among high schoolers; in 2025, about 22 percent of girls but just 7 percent of boys identified as lesbian, gay, or bisexual.
Second, bisexuality is the mechanical cause of the non-heterosexuality boom. In 2021, at the peak of female high-school-age LGB identification, an incredible 26 percent of ninth-grade girls identified as bisexual while only 4 percent identified as lesbian. Among eighteen- to twenty-four-year-old women today, four times more identify as bisexual than as lesbian. Among the youngest girls, the 2025 crash in LGB identity has been a crash in bisexual identity; among ninth-graders, bisexual identification fell from 22 percent in 2023 to 13 percent in 2025.
Third, non-heterosexuality skews elite. Research by University of Buckingham political scientist Eric Kaufmann has found that the more elite the educational institution, the higher the levels of LGBTQ identification. In 2022, heterosexual identification at Phillips Academy, one of the most prestigious boarding prep schools in America, was a mere 63 percent. The figure was the same among the eight Ivy League universities in 2024. At leading research universities measured in the annual Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) campus survey, the recent low was 68 percent, while across a more representative swath of American higher education, as measured in the Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) survey, the low was 77 percent. In short: the more elite, the less heterosexual.
As woke values and practices are strongest in elite and female social loci, we shouldn’t be surprised to see non-heterosexual identities exhibiting the same pattern.
It is natural to want to identify as what your social circle valorizes, but it’s stolen valor.